Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Quebec Election Analysis

I was going to post on the Quebec election, but saw something that for the most part pretty much encapsulates what I was thinking already. It's a comment a reader made at the small dead animals blog.  Here's an excerpt...

Coyne's analysis around his claim that Charest was Harper's man, "and make no mistake" about it, is completely flawed. The Charest vote is a one-for-one federal liberal vote which, as things stand, is a vote for Dion. Moreover, every single anglo Quebecker would understand this to be self-evident.

If one excludes the anglo population, the fracophones are pretty evenly devided between the left and right. And I don't mean Coyne-type pseudo "conservatives", but the real freedom-loving types, like they have in Texas. If these right wing fracophones have voted PQ in the past, it's probably because they found Quebec's leftist anglos and the Coynes of the ROC so bloody offensive.

Harper's man in this election was in fact Mario Dumont. Indeed, every single Dumont vote was already a Harper vote, and is certain to be one for the foreseable future. I'd say that right there is Harper's majority.

While it's evident that the MSM are factually challenged and wildly biased with regard to Harper and conservatives, many Conservatives take the MSM's "facts" about Quebec without question. Consider that 'Quebec separation' is an idea that both the federal and Quebec provincial Liberals are desparate to keep alive; it's the clan war of which they are half. The leftist Quebec media, both english and french, also owe their existance to the clan war; it's the only narrative they know.

Read the whole thing here...

The one point I would add is that this result plays well for the Conservatives federally and basically, scare the Libs, BQ, and NDP shitless! The reason being is that Harper and co. are going to emboldened by the results and can push more of their political agenda federally. No one in the opposition wants an election now, knowing that the Quebec electorate basically slapped the Libs and PQ in the face and went for the ADQ in such a big way. The island of Montreal is swimming against the tide and frankly reflects the Anglophone colony in Francophone Quebec.  With Quebecers ready to move to the right, perhaps Harper and co. will arrange for their own defeat in parliament on an issue such as crime, immigration, or something else that will play well in rural Quebec.

Personally, I think now's the time for Harper to try and push through strong anti-terrorist legislation on the back of an enhanced immigration system that makes it more difficult for people to immigrate to Canada without some significant advantage accruing to Canada. Given that the opposition recently killed the earlier act from being renewed, I would suggest Harper may it a confidence vote. 

On the immigration front, perhaps a combination of selective immigration,such as allowing landed immigrant status only for the truly needed (entrepreneurial class??), and offering temporary worker visas with no hope of landed immigrant status for those jobs Canadians don't want or can't do (picking fruit & vegetables, skilled trades, IT workers, etc...). 

Couple the above with refugee status only to those being oppressed for bonafide political dissent, or religious persecution, with the caveat that the people we let in sign off on our Charter of Rights and repudiate any beliefs they have that would contradict our Charter or cause them to act out against Canadian society.

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